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09/21/2011 - Tucson, AZ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 10th-ranked Oregon Ducks hit the road this weekend for their Pac-12 Conference opener against the Arizona Wildcats in Tucson.
Oregon, which reached the BCS National Championship Game a year ago, began the 2011 season with a 40-27 loss to a very good LSU team on a neutral field. Since that disappointing setback, the Ducks have reeled off back-to-back victories, including last week's 56-7 romp over FCS foe Missouri State. They have now scored 125 points the last two games, but it remains to be seen if that level of offensive production will carry into league action.
"You really clean it up as you get into Pac-12 play, with the two new teams in it, the championship game, and it's going to be an exciting season," said Oregon coach Chip Kelly, who understands the importance of playing flawless football in this league opener. "I really don't know how it's going to play itself out. By and large the Pac-12 season opens up next week for everybody, and we got to be ready to go."
The schedule has been brutal for Arizona early on this season, as the team is set to play its third consecutive top-10 opponent. After crushing Northern Arizona to open the campaign, the Wildcats have been beaten soundly by Oklahoma State and Stanford in consecutive weeks. After the loss to Stanford by a 37-10 final last weekend, 'Cats head coach Mike Stoops remained resolute.
"With our team, we have to do things right, and we are doing a lot of good things," said Stoops. "We just got exposed because we are young, but when you play against these types of team, you do get better. That is the bright side we have to focus on."
Oregon owns a 22-14 series lead over Arizona, which includes victories in each of the last three meetings.
The Ducks had their way offensively against Missouri State last week as expected, posting 681 total yards en route to eight touchdowns. The ground attack was lethal, compiling 416 yards on 43 attempts. LaMichael James is one of the nation's top tailbacks, and he raced for 204 yards and three scores. Quarterback Darron Thomas was effective through the air, completing 11-of-15 passes for 206 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions.
"Obviously, we feel like we can run the ball, but with Darron back there it allows us to be a balanced football team and make the defense cover the entire field," says Kelly of the offense. "As we develop more depth out of a receiver, and have some people there that people have to take notice too, then I think it's just going to help us as a team."
Through three outings, the Ducks are generating 50.7 ppg and 539.7 total ypg, and 12 of the 19 offensive scores have come through the air. Thomas has thrown 10 touchdowns against only one interception and has completed 62.5 percent of his throws. James has rushed for 325 yards and five scores on just 42 carries, and Lavasier Tuinei paces the receivers with three touchdown receptions.
The Ducks held Missouri State to 289 total yards and one touchdown despite failing to generate a single turnover. Surprisingly, the Oregon defense was on the field for nearly 40 minutes despite limiting Missouri State to 6-of-17 efficiency on third-down conversion attempts. Opponents are scoring 22.3 ppg against Oregon thus far.
Arizona knew it was facing a tough Stanford defense last week and failed miserably in an effort to establish the run, finishing with a mere 51 rushing yards on 23 attempts, an average of just 2.2 yards per tote. That lack of success put added pressure on quarterback Nick Foles and the passing attack. Foles did complete 24-of-33 passes for 239 yards with one touchdown and no interceptions, but that effort simply wasn't enough.
"They did exactly what I thought they would do," said Foles. "They were very physical on both sides of the ball. We didn't execute very well on third down and that killed us."
Stanford was able to hold the ball for nearly 36 minutes against Arizona and scored five offensive touchdowns, including three on the ground. The Cardinal were able to rush for 242 yards at a clip of 6.2 yards per carry and averaged a gaudy 16.2 yards per pass completion.
Overall this season, Arizona is generating 21.7 ppg and 419.7 total ypg while yielding 28.0 ppg and 473.3 total ypg. The Wildcats have committed just one turnover so far, but they have also notched a mere two takeaways while posting only three sacks. Foles is one of the best quarterbacks in the nation and has completed 75.4 percent of his passes for 1,049 yards and seven touchdowns against zero interceptions. Juron Criner is a star at receiver as well, but the Wildcats are hampered by what has to be considered one of the worst ground attacks in the FBS.
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Commodores in Columbia this weekend.
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<< Padres turn to Bass in finale with Rockies
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Rookie right-hander Anthony Bass makes the second start of
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to wrap up a three-game series today against the Colorado Rockies.
A 23-year-old, Bas
<< U.S. to face Switzerland in 2012 Davis Cup opener
Bangkok, Thailand (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The all-time titles leader United States
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The 32-time champion America
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(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - After getting boosted by a pair of youngsters last night,
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Alabama hosts Arkansas in clash of ranked SEC foes >>
Tuscaloosa, AL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - In what promises to be one the toughest
battles of the college football weekend, the third-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide
welcome the 14th-ranked Arkansas Razorbacks to Tuscaloosa for an SEC clash.
Bobby Petrin
Kentucky hosts No. 15 Florida in SEC fray >>
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Will Muscham
No. 2 LSU visits No. 16 West Virginia >>
Morgantown, WV (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The second-ranked LSU Tigers of the SEC and
the 16th-ranked West Virginia Mountaineers of the Big East Conference will
collide in what should be a physical battle from Morgantown.
LSU owns the nation's longe
No. 9 Nebraska hits road to battle Wyoming >>
Laramie, WY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Hitting the road for the first time this
season, the ninth-ranked Nebraska Cornhuskers make their way to Laramie this
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Memorial Stadium.
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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