12 Three-Year-Olds vie for bragging rights in Lexington

Horseracing Betting Lines

04/16/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Unless we see a handful of defections between now and May 1, it looks as if the $300,000 Lexington Stakes will not be a major factor in determining the Kentucky Derby lineup.

The only horse with a chance of reaching the starting gate on the first Saturday in May is Todd Pletcher's Connemara, and even if the son of Giant's Causeway hits the wire first, Pletcher isn't 100% certain he'll send the chestnut colt into the first leg of the Triple Crown.

Still, the Grade 2 event is a compelling betting race featuring 12 horses of equal talent. Even the morning line oddsmaker had difficulty determining a favorite as four colts are between 4 and 6-1.

The tepid early favorite is Uptowncharlybrown, who'll be the sentimental choice after losing his trainer, Alan Seewald, to a deadly heart attack earlier in the week. Linda White, his longtime assistant, will saddle the fifth-place finisher from the Tampa Bay Derby.

Uptowncharlybrown does receive a positive rider change going from Daniel Centeno to Garrett Gomez but the long-striding son of Limehouse is still an unknown over the Polytrack surface. It's quite possible even with the jockey switch that the colt could regress in the Lexington.

As mentioned earlier, Connemara is the lone horse in the race with a chance to be draped with the blanket of roses in two weeks. He ran third in his last start - the Lane's End Stakes at Turfway Park - the first time he failed to finish first or second in five lifetime appearances.

Connemara has had multiple problems getting out of the gate with the rest of the horses and it severely affected his chances in the Lane's End after hopping at the start. Don't expect his penchant for poor breaks to improve in the Lexington as he has now broke slowly in four of his five career efforts.

Kettle River is another colt with something to prove after a disastrous eighth- place finish in the Sham Stakes back on March 5. In that race, jockey Brice Blanc got him in all sorts of trouble right from the start breaking dead last in the 10-horse field. Remaining in that position after checking slightly around the far turn, the son of Congaree was finally free and clear through the stretch but had little in the tank inside the final furlong.

As is the case with Uptowncharlybrown, a rider change from Blanc to J.J. Castellano could move the horse forward. The unknown factor is Polytrack as Kettle River has never set foot in a race on that type of synthetic. Nevertheless, his workouts at Keeneland could indicate a liking for the surface, especially after he breezed five furlongs in 1:00 3/5 earlier in the week. If he's ever going to get back to his winning ways, this Saturday could be the day.

One horse that shouldn't have any problems with Polytrack is Krypton. The son of Rock Hard Ten prevailed in an allowance race on opening day at Keeneland by over six lengths, and Kiaran McLaughlin sends him right back 15 days later.

He should break quickly from the rail but the key will be for jockey Alan Garcia not to get caught in an early speed duel with Exhi. If those two colts go too fast in the first half of the race, it is doubtful either one will find himself in the winner's circle.

Speaking of Exhi, he's the second Todd Pletcher-trained horse in the race besides Connemara. Don't forget, the four-time Eclipse Award-winning trainer has won the Lexington the last two years with Advice and Behindatthebar.

Exhi was abused by Odysseus in a Tampa Bay allowance race in mid-February, losing by 15 lengths. However, he had a built-in excuse that day since it was his first start off a 116-day layoff.

The son of Maria's Mon bounced back to win the Rushaway Stakes at Turfway Park, the same day as the Lane's End. Ridden by Russell Baze, the bay colt led by a full length throughout, with splits of 47 2/5, 1:11 2/5 and 1:37 3/5 for four, six and eight furlongs, before finishing up the 1 1/16 in 1:44 2/5.

For comparison purposes, the internal fractions of the Lane's End were 48 2/5, 1:12 3/5 and 1:37 4/5, with the winner, Dean's Kitten, running a slower time at each point in the race. In addition, the horse on the lead for all three splits wound up ninth and last.

Robby Albarado will take him as far as he can go on Saturday but don't expect similar results since Krypton will be breathing down his neck for much of the race.

LONGSHOTS TO CONSIDER

I mentioned earlier that the Lexington is a very contentious race, so there will be a few decently-priced horses to keep a watchful eye on.

Call Shot comes to Keeneland off a third-place finish to Radiohead and Homeboykris in a one mile allowance race at Gulfstream Park on February 27. He ran his final quarter-mile that day in 24 1/5 showing that the 1 1/16-miles won't be too much of a burden.

Don't forget, the $235,000 yearling purchase was actually favored over (and defeated) American Lion last September. He then followed up that effort with a win (via disqualification) over Polytrack at Keeneland.

Call Shot has been working well over the track as evidenced by his 58 2/5 bullet on April 5 - his fastest work of 2010. There's a good chance he'll be at least 10-1, so pluck a few dollars down on the son of Tale of the Cat.

Prince Will I Am makes his first start in almost two months since an eighth- place run in the Fountain of Youth. In fact, he's now lost twice to Eskendereya by over 30 lengths. On the other hand, the Kentucky-bred already has a victory at 45-1 and a second-place finish at 42-1 so he's proven to be able to fool the public on more than one occasion. His late closing style should pay dividends at Keeneland so don't rush to throw him out of the exotics.

Distorted Dave comes into the Lexington off a huge score at Santa Anita, knocking off both Big Man Has a Sign and Indian Firewater by over four lengths. Trainer John Sadler has been hot as a pistol with Sidney's Candy and Line of David winning Grade I stakes this month so toss Distorted Dave at your own risk.

Chief Counsel is another colt with a license to improve off his last outing. The Bill Mott-trained three-year-old was the next-to-last priced horse in the Lane's End but finished a decent fourth in his first graded stakes appearance.

He comes into the Lexington off just one posted workout since that race but it was a dandy 46 4/5 breeze over the track last Saturday. It will be interesting to see if he is able to carry some of that early morning speed into the race, especially since his only start at Keeneland was a gate-to-wire victory over First Dude, who just finished third in the Blue Grass.

Unfortunately, he's stuck all the way on the outside in post 12, so even if Kent Desormeaux wants some early speed he might be forced wide if Exhi, Heavenville and Kettle River all break sharply from his inside.

Heavenville comes into the Lexington off a 6 1/4-length win in an ungraded state-bred stakes event on Louisiana Derby day at the Fair Grounds. His 1:44 2/5 final time for the 1 1/16-mile race compared very favorably to Mission Impazible's victory in the Derby so keep that in mind when you see him go off at 20-1 or higher.

Selections: 1) Kettle River; 2) Call Shot; 3) Distorted Dave. The longshot is Prince Will I Am.

MEDAGLIA d'AMOUR RETURNS

After knocking off entry-level allowance foes on March 14, Medaglia d'Amour takes a giant step up in class this Saturday in the Grade II Santa Barbara Handicap at Santa Anita.

The four-year-old filly also must contend with the grueling 1 1/4-mile distance after running a flat mile last month. However, she's bred to run all day as her dam, Izara, is a half-sister to Fraise, and her granddam, defeated John Henry in the 1983 Oak Tree Invitational.

Tuscan Evening, the expected favorite, comes into the Santa Barbara riding high a three-race stakes winning streak so Medaglia d'Amour's price should be a square one.

If she is able to come through with a victory, there's no telling how good the Ben Cecil-trained filly could be.

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MySportsbook.com: New College Football Clock Rules Examined

Coaches and bettors alike are desperate to make sense of the new time-keeping rules on the NCAA gridiron. One of the big stories to come out of the Ohio State-Texas clash last weekend was Texas coach Mack Brown's criticism of the NCAA's new clock rules that are intended to shorten the duration of college football games, therefore affecting college football betting.

"They scored with six minutes left and the game was over before we had a chance to do anything," Brown told ESPN.com. "I really hope whoever made these changes will go back and look them over."

Sure, it might be sour grapes; the Buckeyes thoroughly trounced the defending national champion Longhorns 24-7. However, Brown isn't alone in giving the changes their due thought. Bettors are also wondering about them, albeit for a completely different reason. Most experts agree that the changes will result in games being shortened by anywhere from 10 to 20 plays. The obvious consequence is lower scores, with more time rolling off the clock during changes of possession. (The Ohio State-Texas game flew well under the total of 52.)

According to research at the online sportsbook MySportsbook.com, more than 18 plays a game disappeared last weekend into thin air. That's a 10-percent reduction. In 2005, a typical game had 168.58 plays. For 2007 already, it's down to 150.26.

As a result, teams combined to gain an average of about 100 fewer yards a game last weekend versus the 2005 openers. Scoring was also down by about 4.5 points (attention Las Vegas sports lines).

Of course, oddsmakers were able to adjust to the changes before the season started. Proof of that came as the over went a balanced 8-9 at My Sportsbook on Saturday.

Other angles to consider:A shorter game should theoretically result in shorter lines. Whereas Team A might have been a 14-point favorite in a 168-play game (last year), if there are 10 percent less snaps in 2007, the line should also be reduced by 10 percent (to 13 or 12.5). Of course, this is an over-simplification of the matter, but something to keep in mind.
Less possessions means a better chance the game will be decided by three or seven points. For example, what might have been a 20-10 final score in 2005 may end at

17-10 in 2007. Granted, a 24-17 game last year might end at 21-17 these days, but the former - a three- or seven-point advantage being preserved as opposed to created - is the most likely scenario.

*UPDATE* - Sept. 25, 2007

New Clock Rules Boon for online bookmakers

By adjusting the time-keeping rules to shorten the duration of college football games, the NCAA hoped to make its product more enjoyable for the fans. While the NCAA's success in this regard is still up for debate, bookmakers couldn't be happier with the results.

"We are seeing a massive jump in college football betting," noted the MySportsbook.com management team. "With all the early Saturday games (12 a.m. ET) ending before the second wave begins (3:30 p.m. ET) - something that didn't always happen before the changes - bettors are now able to re-invest their winnings from the morning session in the afternoon games."

While not all bettors will choose to roll over their winnings, it doesn't take much for an impact to be seen on the bottom line. "Not all of the millions of dollars in morning payouts get re-bet. In fact, it's probably only 10 to 20 percent," noted the sportsbook management team. "Still, the increased football betting lines window will create a ton of growth for us over the course of the season."

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Matt Kenseth And Kevin Harvick Favorites To Take NASCAR Nextel Cup Championship

(September 15)—The NASCAR season has hit the homestretch with the opening event on this year’s Chase for the Cup taking place this weekend at the Sylvania 300 at New Hampshire International Speedway. With 10 races remaining to determine the Cup Series champion, leading online sportsbook MySportsbook.com today announced odds on all 10 Chase qualifying drivers capturing the NASCAR Sprint Cup Championship.

One of the largest sportsbook sites on the Internet, MySportsbook.com currently lists the top two drivers in the point standings as the early favorites to win the Nextel Cup. Entering the Chase for the Cup with a slim five-point lead in the point standings, 2003 NASCAR champ Matt Kenseth has been made a slight favorite to win his second Cup at 7/2 betting odds. 2001 Cup Rookie of the Year Kevin Harvick has betting odds listed at 5/2 and four-time NASCAR champion Jeff Gordon is listed at 6/1 to capture the Nextel Cup this year.

Hoping to follow in the footsteps of his legendary father who won six NASCAR titles, Dale Earnhardt Jr. stands at 8/1 to breakthrough with his first Cup victory. Staying with the family theme, MySportsbook.com lists 2005 Rookie of the Year Kyle Busch at 14/1 to succeed big brother Kurt’s 2004 NASCAR title. While Kasey Kahne was the final driver to qualify for the Chase with a third place finish last week, the oddsmakers give him a fighting chance at 10/1 mainly due to several mile-and-a-half tracks remaining on the schedule. Despite going winless on the NASCAR circuit this season, Jeff Burton enters the Chase at 5/1 to capture the Cup title. Meanwhile, rookie Denny Hamlin is 4/1 to win the championship, while veteran driver Mark Martin enters the Chase for the Cup as a 15/1 long shot to win his first NASCAR title in his 24th and final season.

MySportsbook.com will offer comprehensive Nascar betting lines on every race remaining on the Nextel Cup series including driver match-ups, props and odds to win each race. For a complete list of NASCAR odds, please visit www.MySportsbook.com.

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