08/23/2008 - San Francisco, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Rich Aurilia drove in the go-ahead run in the eighth inning with a two-out triple, leading the Giants to a 4-3 victory over the San Diego Padres in the second of three games.
Barry Zito (8-15) got his third win of August -- the most for any month this season, allowing three runs on four hits with and three walks while fanning five in the victory. Brian Wilson pitched a perfect ninth for his NL-leading 34th save of the season.
Aaron Rowand hit two doubles and drove in a run and Pablo Sandoval scored twice for the Giants, who have tied a season-high four-game winning streak.
Dirk Hayhurst didn't factor into the decision in his major league debut, allowing three runs on five hits in four innings while striking out two and walking two. Mike Adams (1-2) took the loss after giving up a run and two hits in two innings of work.
Chase Headley had a double and two RBI and Jody Gerut had a triple, an RBI and a run scored for the Padres, who have now lost six in a row.
San Francisco went in front for good in the eighth. Rowand led off with his second double of the game, but was thrown out at third on Sandoval's ground ball to first. After Travis Ishikawa flied out, Aurilia hit a two-out triple to right-center field to drive home the game-winning run from first.
The Giants got on the scoreboard in the opening inning. Dave Roberts worked a walk, stole second and moved to third on Ivan Ochoa's bunt single. Randy Winn grounded into a fielder's choice, plating Roberts, and Rowand hit an RBI double, plating Winn for a 2-0 lead.
San Diego tied up the score in the fourth. Adrian Gonzalez led off with a walk, and two batters later Gerut ripped a RBI triple to right. Headley followed with a sacrifice fly to knot the game at two.
Zito helped his own cause in the bottom of the fourth, hitting a two-out RBI single to score Sandoval and regain the lead, 3-2.
Headley hit a two-out RBI double for the Padres in the sixth to tie the game, 3-3.
Game Notes
The Giants lead the season series 9-4...The Padres called up Hayhurst prior to Saturday's game. He posted a 2-3 record with a 3.75 ERA in 46 appearances -- including two starts -- at Triple-A Portland this season. In a related move, the team optioned infielder Brian Myrow to Portland...With this loss, San Diego has lost four consecutive series...Rowand's two doubles gives him 200 for his career.
<< Royals' Gordon goes to DL
Kansas City, MO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Kansas City Royals third baseman Alex
Gordon was placed on the 15-day disabled list Saturday with a torn muscle in
his right leg.
Gordon left Thursday's 10-3 loss against the Cleveland Indians
<< Rangers recall pitcher McCarthy from minors
Arlington, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Texas Rangers recalled pitcher Brandon
McCarthy from Triple-A Oklahoma in time to start Saturday's game against the
Cleveland Indians.
The 25-year old McCarthy will make his season debut as he spe
<< Streelman leads Barclays as Stricker collapses
Paramus, NJ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Kevin Streelman carded a three-under 68
Saturday to take a one-stroke lead after 54 holes of The Barclays, the first
FedEx Cup Playoff event.
Streelman completed three rounds at eight-under-par 205.
<< Points alone in first at NE PA Classic
Moscow, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - D.A. Points posted a three-under 67 Saturday to
take sole possession of the third-round lead at the Northeast Pennsylvania
Classic.
Points, an overnight co-leader, finished 54 holes at 11-under 199 for a
Phils' bats back Hamels in rout of LA >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Pat Burrell had three hits, including a
three-run homer, and matched his career-high with five runs batted in, as the
Philadelphia Phillies thumped the Los Angeles Dodgers, 9-2, in the second of a
four-ga
Lee versus Kittleson in U.S. Amateur final >>
Pinehurst, NC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Danny Lee and Drew Kittleson will meet in
Sunday's 36-hole U.S. Amateur Championship final after both advanced in
Saturday's semifinals.
Lee, 18, who can become the youngest U.S. Amateur champion
Coe two clear in Ontario >>
Mississauga, ON (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Alex Coe fired his second straight five-
under 65 Saturday to grab a two-stroke lead after three rounds of the Jane
Rogers Championship of Mississauga.
Coe completed 54 holes at 13-under-par 197. Th
Lions take advantage of injury-depleted Browns >>
Detroit, MI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Dan Orlovsky hit on 13-of-20 passes for 167
yards, with a touchdown and an interception, while Jon Kitna was 9-of-11
passing for 98 yards to help lead the Detroit Lions in a rout of the injury-
laden C
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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