Second-ranked Buckeyes open 2008 slate against visiting Penguins

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08/27/2008 - Columbus, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The second-ranked Ohio State Buckeyes have lost the national title game the last two years, and they hope for another chance to capture college football's ultimate prize as they begin the 2008 season against Youngstown State.

Last season ended with a 38-24 loss to LSU in the championship game, but that defeat should not completely overshadow a third straight Big Ten Championship. Also, it should be pointed out that the 2007 team was rather young, a statement that is backed up by the fact that both the offense and defense welcome back nine starters in 2008. Coach Jim Tressel has the talent in place to win it all, and he would love to prove his doubters wrong.

Youngstown State competes at the FCS level and is a member of the Missouri Valley Conference. The Penguins are ranked 12th nationally at that level. Despite a 7-4 overall finish a year ago, there is a wealth of returning talent in place.

Ohio State and Youngstown State met on the football field for the first time last season, and the Buckeyes cruised to a 38-6 victory.

Last season, Youngstown State averaged 27.4 ppg and 366.8 total ypg. Of the 35 touchdowns that the offense scored, 28 of those came by way of the ground attack. Rather than rely on one player to carry the load, YSU used a backfield-by-committee approach in 2007, and more of the same is expected this fall. Expect the team to rely on senior Kevin Smith, who rushed for 610 yards and 10 touchdowns on only 123 carries. He is more than capable of an increased workload, but 20 carries per contest may be a stretch.

As for the versatile Ferlando Williams, he led the team in receiving with 42 catches for 499 yards while also rushing for 464 yards and nine scores. Williams averages 6.3 ypc, impressive by any standards. It looks like Todd Rowan will get a chance to lead the offense from his quarterback position, but he leash may be short.

YSU was a strong defensive team in 2007, limiting the opposition to 18.5 ppg and 318.2 total ypg. The play against the run was impressive, as the Penguins held foes to 3.5 ypc. As for the pass defense, the team finished with more interceptions than touchdowns allowed. The top four tacklers from the squad are gone, so there are some big shoes to fill.

It will be hard to get a good look at the quality of this defense in the opener, as Ohio State is simply too talented for any FCS defense. But players like senior defensive tackle Mychal Savage and Andre Elliott can be counted on for outstanding effort.

In his first year as the starter at Ohio State, quarterback Todd Boeckman put up big numbers (2,379 yards, 64 percent completions, 25 TDs), garnered First Team All-Big Ten honors and led his squad to the BCS National Championship Game. Still, most of the off-season talk revolved around ultra-talented quarterback Terrelle Pryor, the top-rated high school player in the nation, who is waiting in the wings and will likely see the field in some capacity as early as this season opener. Still, Tressel values the experience of Boeckman. "There's no price tag on experience and he (Boeckman) can now evaluate things from a whole different perspective. I think it is a lot easier for him to step up and take charge of a football team."

Tailback Chris Wells rushed for 1,609 yards and 15 touchdowns as a sophomore despite a few nagging injuries, and he is among the top candidates to hoist the Heisman Trophy this year. OSU is set at wideout, with top receivers Brian Robiskie (55 rec., 935 yds, 11 TDs) and Brian Hartline (52-694-6) back in the fold. Even the offensive line is flush with veteran leaders, highlighted by All-American tackle Alex Boone (6-8, 312).

Two-time All-American linebacker James Laurinaitis (also last year's Butkus Award winner, Nagurski Award winner and Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year) will be playing on Sundays soon enough. So will All-Big Ten corner Malcolm Jenkins. Much to the delight of Buckeye fans, both decided to return to campus rather than leave early for the NFL, and they will be on the field against Youngstown State.

The Buckeye defense ranked No. 1 last season, allowing just 233 yards and 12.7 points per game. The most significant departure is defensive end Vernon Gholston, the Big Ten Defensive Lineman of the year, although there is a wealth of depth to replace him. Cameron Heyward came on to accumulate 10 tackles for loss in place of injured starter Lawrence Wilson, who is back after being forced to redshirt the final 12 games. All-Big Ten linebacker Marcus Freeman (105 tackles) will once again team with Laurinaitis (121 tackles, five sacks in 2007) to form a nasty tandem in the middle of the field, while the entire secondary returns, including Jenkins (47 tackles, four INTs).

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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Academy Award Betting Odds for Best Picture Offer Great Value

If there is any category that is not an obvious win for any one nominee in this year's Academy Awards, it would be for Best Picture.  Sure the Departed is a 5/7 favorite, but that's hardly anything when we look at Helen Mirren and her "out-of-reach" 1 to 40 odds (which means you would win a whopping $1 for every $40 bet).

For value, take a look at MySportsbook.com Oscars betting odds on my personal favorite, The Queen - a remarkable 12 to 1 long shot.  The film hasn't won any pre-awards for Best Picture (compared to The Departed and Little Miss Sunshine), but there is a tremendous following and it is a strong enough film to warrant a surprise win.

TV Guide advises Oscar watchers should be cautioned not to discount the  drama "Babel" with its strong social themes about overcoming communication gaps among people of different cultures.

"While 'Babel' lost several guild awards to 'Sunshine' and 'Departed,'  it still enjoys loyal support, and historically Oscar voters favor dramas with social messages over comedies like 'Sunshine' and violent crime movies like 'Departed'."

"It hasn't done well in the guilds, which means there isn't much industry support," said Tom O'Neil of awards site TheEnvelope.com, "But several critics are expecting it to win, and that gets my attention." Babel had 7 to 2 odds at press time.

Who is to say independently produced Little Miss Sunshine won't be this year's Crash.  Last year, Crash won for Best Motion Picture, shocking those who bet on gay cowboy flick, Brokeback Mountain, as the favorite to win. 

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